More than two million unpaid carers could be living in poverty by 2050

The number of unpaid carers living in poverty could exceed two million by 2050 unless governments introduce substantial financial and practical support, new research has warned.

The Caring in 2035 report, produced by policy consultancy Public First for Carers Trust, forecasts that 1.6 million unpaid carers could be living below the poverty line by 2035. That number is expected to rise beyond two million over the following 15 years as demand for care increases more quickly than either paid social care or the number of relatives and friends able to provide support.

The UK is already heavily dependent on people caring without pay for family members or friends who are older, disabled or living with a long-term health condition. The research estimates that 1.2 million carers currently provide enough hours of support each week to equal a full-time job, often while attempting to remain in employment, raise children or manage health problems of their own.

Taking on substantial caring responsibilities can reduce the number of hours a person is able to work or force them to leave employment altogether. Carers can also face higher household costs for heating, transport, food, medical equipment and laundry. Existing evidence suggests that approximately 1.2 million carers are already in poverty, with many cutting back on essentials or relying on credit to meet ordinary bills.

The new projections form part of a wider warning about the growing gap between the care people will need and the support available. Around 8.4 million people are estimated to need care in 2025, rising to 10.3 million by 2050. However, the supply of both paid and unpaid care is forecast to grow much more slowly, creating an estimated shortage of 600,000 unpaid carers by 2035 and one million by 2050.

Kirsty McHugh, chief executive of Carers Trust, said unpaid carers were holding the current system together at enormous personal cost. She called for properly funded local services, stronger financial and wellbeing support and recognition of carers as an essential part of the health and social care system rather than an invisible resource expected to absorb ever-increasing pressure.

The warning arrives as the future of social care remains high on the political agenda. Baroness Louise Casey is leading a national conversation about reform, while the Government has committed to developing a National Care Service. Carers Trust has argued that any credible settlement must look beyond care-home capacity, council budgets and the paid workforce to address the millions of people delivering care inside their own homes.

Without that support, the consequences will reach far beyond individual households. Carers becoming ill, leaving work or reaching breaking point will increase pressure on employers, councils, hospitals and already overstretched care services. Preventing poverty among carers is therefore not simply a welfare issue; it is fundamental to whether Britain will have enough care to meet the needs of its ageing and increasingly unwell population.

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